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Commodity News Details
IEA highlights slowdown in global crude oil demand growth, says supplies rising
14-Nov-2024 17:52

International Energy Agency or IEA stated in a latest monthly update that world oil demand is forecast to expand by 920 kb/d this year and just shy of 1 mb/d in 2025, to 102.8 mb/d and 103.8 mb/d, respectively. The slowdown in growth from recent years reflect the end of the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand and below-par underlying global economic conditions, as well as clean energy technology deployment.

Global oil supply rose by 290 kb/d in October to 102.9 mb/d, as the return of Libyan barrels to the market more than offset lower Kazakh and Iranian supplies. OPEC+ delayed the unwinding of extra voluntary production cuts to January, at the earliest. Non-OPEC+ producers will boost supply by roughly 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025.

Refinery margins improved in October as seasonal maintenance and economic run cuts supported product cracks. Global refinery runs hit a seasonal low in October before starting to recover in November and will average 82.8 mb/d this year and 83.4 mb/d in 2025. Annual growth of roughly 600 kb/d is driven largely by OECD Americas (+360 kb/d) this year and by non-OECD regions in 2025.

Global oil inventories plunged by 47.5 mb in September, to their lowest level since January, led by a sharp draw in OECD oil products and non-OECD crude oil stocks. OECD industry stocks fell by 36.4 mb to 2 799 mb, 95.3 mb below the five-year average. Provisional data suggest total global stocks decreased for a fifth consecutive month in October.

Brent futures rose $2.50/bbl m-o-m to $75.38/bbl in October, but traded in a wide $10/bbl range. Prices peaked at $80.90/bbl early in the month on escalating tensions in the Middle East but subsequently eased to close the month at around $73/bbl.

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