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Market Speaks: World refined copper production up about 4.1% in first nine months of 2024
21-Nov-2024 17:24

International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for September world copper supply and demand in its October 2024 Copper Bulletin. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by about 1.8% over the first nine months of 2024, with concentrate production increasing by 2% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 1.1%.

Global mine production benefited from a recovery from constrained output in 2023 (mainly in Chile, Indonesia, and the USA) as well as additional production from mine projects ramping up to capacity namely in the D.R. Congo (DRC). Production in Chile increased by 3%, primarily benefiting from improved output at the Escondida and Collahuasi mines and the ramp-up of Quebrada Blanca (QB2). Chilean concentrate output was up by 7.3% in contrast to SX-EW which was down by 9.3%

Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by about 4.1% in the first nine months of 2024 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 4.2% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 4%. Growth in world refined production was mainly as a result of strong performances in China and the DRC due to expanded capacity. China and the DRC together account for about 54% of world refined copper production.

Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 2.5% in the first nine months of 2024. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), grew by around 3%. Chinese net refined copper imports increased by 1% (refined copper imports increased by 8% but this was largely balanced by an 78% rise in exports).

Preliminary world refined copper balance indicates an apparent surplus of about 359,000 t in the first nine months of 2024. As of the end of October 2024, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 512,206 t, an increase of 301,356 t (+141%) from stocks held at the end of December 2023. Stocks were up at the LME (+105,675 t), at SHFE (+132,170 t) and at COMEX (+63,511 t).

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