The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service states that 2025/26 global cotton use is forecast up slightly from the previous year to 118.1 million bales, a 5-year high if realized. Global production is forecast down 3.3 million bales to 117.8 million as smaller crops in China and Australia more than offset a larger crop in Brazil. China production is forecast down 3.0 million bales to 29.0 million as yields are expected to fall from last year’s record and area is unchanged. Area planted is projected to fall in many countries, including the United States and Australia, due to weaker cotton prices. In Brazil, area harvested and production are both forecast above the record levels reached in 2024/25.

Global Cotton trade is projected up 2.3 million bales to 44.8 million on higher exportable supplies and a slight rise in global consumption. Bangladesh is expected to remain the largest importer at 8.5 million bales followed by Vietnam at 8.0 million bales, record levels for both countries. China imports are forecast up 1.0 million bales to 7.0 million but well short of the 15.0 million bales imported in 2023/24. Of the top five importers, only Pakistan imports are projected to fall due to higher expected domestic production. Brazil is forecast to remain the largest exporter at 14.0 million bales followed by the United States at 12.5 million.

Global Cotton consumption is forecast up nearly 1.4 million bales to 118.1 million, the highest level in 5 years. Global ending stocks are unchanged at 78.4 million. The US season-average farm price for 2025/26 is forecast at 62 cents per pound, down 1 cent from the previous year.

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