EIA, in its short term energy outlook expects rising global oil inventories will drive crude oil prices lower over the forecast period. The EIA projected that oil inventory builds will average 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.4 million bpd higher than last month's forecast. It also forecasts U.S. crude oil production to decline from an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) to about 13.3 million b/d by 4Q26 because of decreasing active drilling rigs and declining oil prices. Last month, active rigs decreased by much more than we had expected in our May STEO, based on data from Baker Hughes, EIA stated. With fewer active drilling rigs, we forecast U.S. operators will drill and complete fewer wells through 2026. On an annual basis, we now forecast crude oil production will average a bit more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a bit less than 13.4 million b/d in 2026, EIA noted.

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