Food inflation continues to ease, driven by decline in inflation for cereals and animal proteins, while the deflation in pulses continues, discussion in previous RBI monetary policy meeting reflected. In April 2025, pulses prices declined by 5.2% yoy, marking a 6-year low. From a near-term perspective, there is no visible sign of any adverse impact on vegetable prices from the unusually early onset of monsoon. The past episodes of early monsoon onset were not necessarily associated with a rise in vegetable prices. Going forward, edible oil prices are expected to decline supported by the recent reduction in the import duty (from 20% to 10%), strengthening the benign inflation outlook. This suggests a healthy supply of the previous crop and buoyant expectations for the next harvest, which is currently being sown. Budget 2025 has focused on the food processing industry. This, along with the substantial improvements in supply chain logistics, means we can look forward to a period of moderated food inflation with reduced price volatility in the future.

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