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Market Speaks: EIA says global oil inventories to increase from mid-2025, sees continued decline in OPEC export revenue
02-Jul-2025 16:02

The US Energy Information Administration or EIA stated in a latest update that OPEC members earned about $550 billion in crude oil export revenues in 2024, a 9%, or $55 billion (nominal $) decline from 2023. The decline in revenues resulted from a decline in both crude oil prices and OPEC crude oil production last year. Crude oil prices have been the primary driver for OPEC crude oil revenues from 2010–2024. Although OPEC crude oil production has varied from 11% above to 10% below its 2010 average of 26.9 million barrels per day, the Brent crude oil price has varied more significantly, from 40% above to 48% below the 2010 price of $79.54 per barrel (b).

EIA forecasts that OPEC crude oil export revenues will continue to decline in 2025 and 2026 alongside the expected decline in crude oil prices over the same period. OPEC crude oil export revenues, unadjusted for inflation, are likely to decline to $455 billion in 2025 and to $410 billion in 2026. It expects global oil inventories to increase starting in the middle of 2025 as OPEC+ members unwind production cuts, production grows in non-OPEC countries, and oil demand growth slows. As a result, EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price to average $66/b in 2025 and fall to an average of $59/b in 2026.

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