09-Jul-2025 08:38

U.S. households' inflation expectations were largely unchanged in June and they were more optimistic regarding their financial situation and access to credit in the year-ahead, results of a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed on Tuesday.

The NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon. Expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year ahead horizon and at 2.6 percent for the five-year-ahead period.

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads and the latest round was conducted from June 02 to June 30.

The NY Fed survey also found that households' year-ahead expectations about their personal financial situation also improved, with a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

Income growth expectations improved by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 percent in June, while spending growth outlook weakened by the same amount to 4.8 percent.

In June, a smaller share of households reported that it is harder to get credit versus a year ago. Consumers' expectations for future credit availability also improved.

House price growth expectations, which has been moving in a 3.0-3.3 percent range since August 2003, was unchanged at 3.0 percent in June, the survey showed.

Unemployment expectations, which reflects the likelihood that the U.S. jobless rate will be higher one year from now eased by 1.1 percentage point to 39.7 percent. Households' perceptions of losing a job in the one-year ahead were the lowest level since December 2024.

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