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Market Speaks: US economy to grow at 1.9% in 2025 says IMF, Euro area and China growth seen at 1% and 4.1% respectively.
30-Jul-2025 15:01

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) July update stated that global growth is expected to decelerate, with apparent resilience due to trade-related distortions waning. At 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, the forecasts are below the 2024 outcome of 3.3 percent and the prepandemic historical average of 3.7 percent, even though they are higher than the April reference forecast.

Growth in advanced economies is projected to be 1.5 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026. In the United States, with tariff rates settling at lower levels than those announced on April 2 and looser financial conditions, the economy is projected to expand at a rate of 1.9 percent in 2025. This is 0.1 percentage point higher than the April reference forecast, with some offset from private demand cooling faster than expected and weaker immigration. Growth is projected to pick up slightly to 2.0 percent in 2026.

In the euro area, growth is expected to accelerate to 1.0 percent in 2025 and to 1.2 percent in 2026. This is an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2025, but it is largely driven by the strong GDP outturn in Ireland in the first quarter of the year, although Ireland represents less than 5 percent of euro area GDP.

In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to be 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026. Relative to the forecast in April, growth in 2025 for China is revised upward by 0.8 percentage point to 4.8 percent. This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US–China tariffs. The GDP outturn in the first quarter of 2025 alone implies a mechanical upgrade to the growth rate for the year of 0.6 percentage point.

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