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Commodities Buzz: EIA expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 amid weak cues from crude oil market
21-Jan-2026 11:23
The US Energy Information Administration or EIA has stated that it expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 amid weak cues from crude oil. It noted that in latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, it forecast retail US gasoline prices will be lower the next two years than in 2025, falling 6% in 2026 and then increasing 1% in 2027. On a regional basis, EIA expects gasoline prices to decrease in every region in 2026 and increase in 2027. Despite that expected increase, 2027 average gasoline prices remain less than 2025 averages in every region except the West Coast (PADD 5), where it expects the upcoming loss of refinery capacity will contribute to relatively higher gasoline margins and gasoline prices that are about equal to 2025, in nominal terms. EIA's forecast for generally lower retail gasoline prices over the next two years follows an ongoing trend of falling gasoline prices since reaching a historical high point of $5/gallon in mid-2022. On a nominal basis, EIA estimates the 20 cents-per-gallon decrease in 2026 will be comparable to price decreases in 2024 and 2025.

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