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Market Speak: IEA flags demand pickup, balanced supply growth in 2026
12-Feb-2026 15:15
International Energy Agency's latest monthly report released today signals a modest pickup in global oil demand growth in 2026, driven entirely by non-OECD economies. Global demand is forecast to rise by 850 kb/d next year, up from 770 kb/d in 2025, with China leading growth, while demand in advanced economies remains subdued. The report noted a change in the composition of demand, with petrochemical feedstock products expected to contribute more than half of the growth this year, compared with around one-third in 2025 when transport fuels dominated. On the supply side, global oil output fell sharply by 1.2 mb/d in January to 106.6 mb/d, as severe winter weather disrupted North American production, while outages and export constraints limited supplies from Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela. Looking ahead, world oil supply is projected to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026 to 108.6 mb/d, following gains of nearly 3.1 mb/d last year, with production growth broadly split between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.

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