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Market Speak: $10 oil surge highlights market volatility, IEA warns of rising surplus
12-Feb-2026 15:23
Oil prices surged by nearly 10% in January, rising about $10 per barrel, as supply outages and escalating US-Iran tensions tightened physical crude markets, the IEA said in its monthly report released today. Brent crude was trading around $70 per barrel at the time of writing after an initial pullback reversed amid fresh shipping advisories in the Strait of Hormuz. The report noted that global oil supply is expected to rebound in the coming months as production recovers from weather-related disruptions in North America and outages in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela. Despite the near-term recovery, global oil supply is still projected to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, assuming OPEC+ maintains current output levels. On the demand side, the IEA trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850 kb/d, citing economic uncertainty and higher prices, with all growth coming from non-OECD economies led by China. The agency also flagged continued inventory builds, underscoring a market where supply continues to outpace demand despite tight conditions in key pricing hubs.

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