Crude oil futures fell yesterday after the US President Donald Trump suggested that he is still willing to engage with Iran in terms of ceasefire talk. This pulled WTI Crude oil down more than 2.50% as highs around $105 per ounce failed to sustain. An eventual break under $100 per barrel further dampened the sentiments and oil extended losses today. It currently trades down 2% at $97 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its latest monthly update for April that Global oil demand growth for 2026 is forecast at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. However, in a critical update for the market, it noted that preliminary February 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 6.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,826 mb.

At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 89.8 mb higher, y-o-y, and 38.5 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude oil stocks increased by 42.9 mb while product stocks decreased by 36.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,366 mb, up 53.2 mb y-o-y, and 11.1 mb above the latest five-year average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,460 mb in February. This was 36.6 mb higher, y-o-y, and 27.4 mb above the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks increased by 0.5 days m-o-m in February, to 62.5 days. This was 1.9 days higher than in February 2025, 0.3 days above the latest five-year average, and in line with the 2015–2019 average.

MCX Crude oil futures for May closed at Rs 8750 per barrel, almost unchanged on the day after witnessing repeated selling pressure in the session and saw hurried correction once Rs 9000 per barrel mark gave up.

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