Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that global growth remains below its long‑term average amidst prolonged geopolitical tensions and trade‑ related uncertainty. AI‑related investment and still‑accommodative financial conditions are supporting activity, even as bouts of heightened asset price volatility reflect shifting market sentiment. Monetary policy stances in major economies remain cautious, with central banks closely monitoring these developments. Recent energy price increases due to the West Asia conflict have heightened upside inflation risks and clouded the global growth outlook.

RBI noted that the global economy faces significant headwinds from escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent trade frictions, rising public debt, and volatility around AI-driven equity valuations. Global growth has been resilient but remains below its historical average, while disinflation is uneven and could be reversed by the recent rise in energy prices. Overall, the outlook for 2026 points to a moderate expansion and it remains highly sensitive to shifts in the geopolitical landscape and energy-driven inflation risks. The balancing of conflicting objectives would require cautious calibration of monetary policy paths while minimising the cost of adjustment.

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