International Energy Association or IEA has stated in a latest monthly update that world oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 thousand barrels per day or kb/d y-o-y in 2026, to 104 million barrels per day or mb/d, 1.3 mb/d less than its pre-war forecast. The biggest decline is in 2Q26, down by 2.45 mb/d, of which the OECD accounts for 930 kb/d and the non-OECD for 1.5 mb/d. The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently most affected, but higher prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use.

Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total losses since February to 12.8 mb/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026, to 102.2 mb/d.

Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to plunge by 4.5 mb/d in 2Q26 to 78.7 mb/d, and by 1.6 mb/d to 82.3 mb/d for 2026 as a whole, as operators contend with infrastructure damage, export restrictions and lower feedstock availability. Refining margins remain at historically high levels, supported by record middle distillate cracks. Refiners are adapting to the crisis, with new trade flows emerging to compensate for lost Gulf product exports.

IEA noted that global observed oil inventories drew by 129 mb in March and by a further 117 mb in April, according to preliminary data. Continued disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz saw on-land stocks drop by 170 mb (-5.7 mb/d) in April, while oil on water rebounded by 53 mb. OECD countries’ on-land stocks plummeted by 146 mb (-4.9 mb/d) while visible non-OECD stocks fell by 24 mb.

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