Global headline inflation is projected to pick up to 4 percent this year, with advanced economies and EMDEs seeing headline inflation rise due to increases in energy costs, World Bank noted in its June global economic prospects. Global inflation is expected to moderate to 3.1 percent next year as the average crude price declines from $94/bbl in 2026 to $76/bbl in 2027, consistent with the baseline assumption that the current conflict in the Middle East subsides, energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz resume after July, and energy production curtailed earlier in the conflict gradually recovers. Core inflation is assumed to be relatively stable amid anchored medium-term inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain because of the intensity and duration of the commodity market disruption.

Powered by Commodity Insights