25-Jun-2026 15:21

European Central Bank or ECB stated in its latest monthly economic bulletin that global economic activity remained resilient at the start of 2026, supported by manufacturing output and the precautionary stockpiling of energy-sensitive goods. Incoming national accounts data suggest that global economic output expanded by 0.7% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Survey indicators point to continued resilience at the beginning of the second quarter of 2026, with the global composite output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounding in April and May 2026 following a sharp decline in March. It noted that this pick-up was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector, whereas the recovery in the services sector was more subdued. References to 'frontloading', 'safety stocks' and related terms in earnings calls from energy and energy-intensive sectors increased substantially, suggesting that firms have been creating buffers in response to heightened uncertainty associated with the war in the Middle East and the potential supply disruptions.

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