OPEC stated in its latest monthly Oil Market Report that global crude oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.0 million barrels per day or mb/d in 2026, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 1.7 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision of about 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.5 mb/d. OPEC noted further that Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. The growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In May, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.19 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.13 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

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